STORM FORECAST
VALID Sun 19 Feb 09:00 - Mon 20 Feb 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 19 Feb 09:20 (UTC)
FORECASTER: DAHL

A threat level 1 is forecast across the northwestern Mediterranean.

SYNOPSIS

Main feature this period is vigorous ... amplifying upper trough now over central Europe ... that will move into the central Mediterranean. Associated SFC low is expected to move across the Gulf of Biscay into central France by Monday morning. Trailing cold front is rather quickly moving eastward and is expected to curve across France into the western Mediterranean on Sunday 12Z .

DISCUSSION

...NW Mediterranean...
Soundings over the western and central Mediterranean are either weakly unstable already ... or could be destabilized rather easily ... which is supported by the models which advertise weak CAPE along/ahead of the cold front pushing across the western Mediterranean today. Satellite imagery appears to suggest that deep-layer lift is copnfined to the northern Mediterranean ... which might hint at lower coverage of TSTMS along the SRN segments of the cold front. Strong deep-layer and low-level shear suggest that a few well-organized TSTMS may occur along the front ... capable of briefly producing marginally severe weather ... main threats being hail and convective wind gusts ... though a brief tornado cannot be discounted. Degree of CAPE is uncertain ... but indications are that at least scattered TSTMS will form ... especially imbedded in the cloud shield currently overspreading the NRN Mediterranean regions ... where a level-one threat is marginally warranted.

...SW Europe...
In the postfrontal environment ... convection should increase over the next few hours as the trough deepens and insolation increases. Though shear profiles should remain fairly strong over Iberia and S France ... organized severe threat seems to be limited by the lack of strong low-level mesoscale ascent. The evolution of short-lived mesocyclones cannot be ruled out though ... with an attendant hail/wind/tornado threat. However ... threat should be too sporadic for a level 1.

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